Chen Zhiwu, the United States put pressure on the RMB exchange rate risk is the transfer of domestic

 Chen Zhiwu: The United States put pressure on the RMB exchange rate risk is the transfer of domestic
Source: China Securities News, Washington
Liu recently said that U.S. President Barack Obama, accompanied by a sharp increase in recent Sino-US trade friction, he will trade relations with China to adopt a more stringent attitude, attention to changes in the RMB exchange rate, strengthening of trade rules to ensure that the so-called US-China trade relations on the other. How to understand the current RMB exchange rate issue in the United States made a new What attitude should be treated the issue of the China Securities newspaper reporter interviewed the Yale School of Management finance professor Zhiwu.
posturing welcome the election
China Securities Journal: the current financial recovery has not yet stabilized, the US-led Western countries make a big fuss on the RMB revaluation, in your opinion, what is the reason for this?
Zhiwu: In my understanding, the United States to do so out of the U.S. domestic political considerations and employment needs. RMB U.S. hopes appreciation to the United States and the United States and other countries to make some kind of trade imbalance between the amendments and adjustments, in order to win public support for the Obama administration.
within the United States among the factors that played an important role. In particular, note that on January 19 this year, the Democratic Party in Massachusetts senator lost the election. This is a key seat, the loss not only to the Senate after the pattern of changes, especially changes in the American political atmosphere; more critical that the Massachusetts Democratic Party 50 states one of the most stable site, the loss is a warning sign of the Obama administration. from the election results, Democrats lost seats this seemingly winner. It is generally that this is American society's dissatisfaction with the administration.
2010 年 11 months, the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections, in which, under pressure from the Democratic Party, Obama must be the interests of politicians and voters to protect U.S. jobs, order to stabilize the Democrats for his support. If Obama can not in 11 months before rising to the words of public support, even the Democratic Party will abandon him, Obama will be difficult to have a big future as a.
Austria Bama hand a card, it is actually an old topic, that is,UGGs, the yuan appreciation to reduce the trade deficit. because in some it seems the American people, the unemployment rate so high is because the Chinese government down the yuan, to the Americans flow of jobs to China. This, from the electoral politics. For Obama, perhaps not the most important practical results, but this attitude is even more important.
Renminbi into U.S. goal of risk transfer
China Securities Journal: The Obama administration issues on an issue, it is hoped the focus and the transfer of domestic political pressure, can be said to Some members of the United States to do so, the pressure is mainly based on race, they want to achieve, not that would really be able to create many jobs, but to the public opinion and the image appeared very close to the people. The first task of their current is to keep his body in the Congress and other elected seats, to keep his political life. Unfortunately, the renminbi has become a very important piece of Obama in the hands of the cards.
China Securities Journal: same to say, you estimate what will happen next?
Zhiwu: In my opinion, Obama is now speaking to strengthen the Sino-US trade rules, former president Bill Clinton and George W. Bush also mentioned, but the two have not met within the term of office such a serious economic crisis and the severe employment situation. Therefore, we may be understood as the attitude of the past, differences in the hundred years of the financial crisis, in such a severe employment situation,Discount UGG boots, January 19, Massachusetts Senate Democrats failed to make the current government in the United States the issue of RMB exchange rate will be more aggressive, ; transfer will be more convincing.
China Securities Journal: April of this year the U.S. Treasury report on currency exchange rates, will be on China as a currency manipulator it?
Zhiwu: Personally, I think the probability is very high. So, I think, too late in the current circumstances, China may consider appropriate to let the RMB appreciation, RMB floating range can be enlarged. In this way, you can drive down American political space for the yuan speculation .
China Securities Journal: on the currency issue on the offensive at the same time, the China's under development, if the parties do not take active measures to be reversed, the consequences will be very serious. China is now the largest creditor, the United States needs China to buy more bonds. if the Chinese sell U.S. treasury bonds, the actual harm to China is also a great . the United States is not afraid of China to sell U.S. treasury bonds, in fact, in the capital market, are often passive investors, so often the game is to whether to continue buying U.S. Treasuries, it purchased the assets of U.S. Treasury bonds already lost the game functions. < br> urgent need for transformation of domestic enterprises, China Securities Journal
: You seem to think that an appropriate appreciation of the RMB is more good than harm, but many Chinese enterprises are labor-intensive enterprises, RMB appreciation China will inevitably pose a lot of the impact of foreign trade enterprises will pressure on the Chinese employment, how do you view this issue?
Zhiwu: United States of factors aside, just from the Chinese interest, an appropriate appreciation of the RMB, China's long-term development, industrial restructuring, not a bad thing, short-term can also play the effect of reducing inflationary pressures.
pressure for trade and employment issues, I would like to talk about my views. From 2005-2008, about 20% appreciation of the renminbi, China's exports are still under a year 30% rate of growth, in fact, did not have a negative impact. China's own experience to show that appreciation does not necessarily bring about the decline in exports, in fact, the rate of appreciation in previous years, control about 5% a year, did not have a negative impact, this one; the second is employment, appreciation would seem to affect employment, but in fact it may have misunderstood and exaggerated the middle. The data show that since 1998, China's manufacturing jobs In fact some decline. In other words, the past ten years, manufacturing efficiency,UGG bailey button, over the past 100 dollars of profit and output of the required labor force, each year in the fall. Thus, exports can be increased,UGG boots, but employment is not necessarily increase.
expand exports, increase employment, the road gets narrower, and the result is the large number of export environment, resources on issues such as the heavy price. to create more jobs, China's major expansion of the tertiary industry should rely on and expand consumer demand. By proper appreciation of the yuan, forcing some businesses to achieve transformation, can better promote the transformation of economic structure, promote long-term economic and sustainable development.